SPC AC 130731
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO EASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are expected from the Lower Great
Lakes area southwestward across the Ohio/Tennessee/Mid Mississippi
Valleys to Kansas/Oklahoma/northeast Texas. Locally damaging winds
and hail will be the primary risks.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over central Canada, and an associated trough trailing
southward into the Upper Midwest, will dig south-southeastward
Sunday, approaching western fringes of the Appalachians overnight.
At the surface, a cold front -- trialing southwestward from Canadian
low pressure -- will advance similarly eastward/southeastward across
the southern and eastern U.S. through the period.
...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to eastern parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma, and the Arklatex...
Diurnal heating/destabilization is forecast ahead of a cold front
progged to advance eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio
Valley, and southeastward across the Tennessee and Mid Mississippi
Valleys and southern Plains. Along and ahead of this front,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
diurnally.
While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of this
front, moderate westerly/northwesterly flow aloft spreading into the
pre-frontal warm sector will foster growth of locally
organized/severe storms, with some upscale/linear growth expected.
Locally damaging winds will be the main severe risk, though hail
will also be possible. While much of the convection will tend to
peak diurnally in the late afternoon/early evening, convection --
and some severe risk -- may linger after dark, particularly across
southwestern portions of the outlook area where greater instability
will reside.
..Goss.. 05/13/2022
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